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Note: This text has been automatically extracted via Optical Character Recognition (OCR) software. The text has not been manually corrected and should not be relied on to be an accurate representation of the item.
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992 Tja ^ J T IiEAJ >^ It . [ No , ffip , ^^ flag ^ y ,,
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^ ^•^^ ^ ^^ , M , M , ^— i ^ M———i————— " ^ tt ^ fbrceTo ? "Sa " empxre w $ iosdiVsuperSciar extent is close on 400 , 000 geogr aphical square miles , extending over forty degrees in latitude from south to north , and over ninety degrees of longitude from east to west , embracing almost every variety of climate ; an empire whose population is highly heterogeneous , and in every phase of the progress from barbarism to civilisation . Th « magnitude of this undertaking might , of itself , lead one to conclude against its being well executed . But , considering the difficulties which Russia presents to the statist , that nowhere are official returns so incomplete , when complete so little to be relied on , and that nowhere are the errors in making probable estimates from defective data so liable to be multiplied , we were fully prepared to find the attempt a failure . Teugoborski has fully realised our expectations . Our author , to judge from his frequent use of the phrase , is a believer in the irrefragable testimony of figures . " He reveres them , however , in their Arabic character as much as for being the representatives of human labour and honour . But , except in so far as they represent these , figures of numbers are as treacherous as figures of speech . We must inquire , therefore , into the validity of the testimony which they give in M . De Tegoborski's book . In making a calculation of the soil in regard to culture , he is forced to jumble the results of surveys at widely distant dates ; those collected in the middle of last century with those just completed . At page 39 we find a table exhibiting the agricultural classification of the soil in forty-five governments . In regard to twenty-six of these , the data rest upon an old general survey of last century ; and in respect to two only was the survey effected in the present . Four tables , supplementary to that just alluded to , exhibit results rectified from those of the former on numerous , and , we think , frequently unreasonable assumptions . The method in which these rectifications are made may be illustrated by an example . The amount of the cultivable lands in forty-five governments is quoted from M . Arsenieft * at 72 , 386 , 755 dessiatines . This is the basis of the calculation for the whole empire , ArseniefPs calculations , errors and all , being accepted so far in the mass . Our author , however , differs from him in detail , and particularly in respect to the governments not included in the forty-five above referred to . Our example is the case of Bessarabia . In tlie tuxt we are told that the arable land in this province occupied in 1846 more tJian a million dessiatines . In a foot-note we are informed that Arsenieff reckons it only 500 , 000 , or less than half as much . This calculation our author considers below the truth . Arguing from the amount of cereals sown in 1845 , he holds that there must then have been at least 688 , 000 dessiatines of arable land . Slumping with this the fields under potatoes , orchards , &c , &c , he says , " We do not see how we can admit less than a million of dessiatines . " It is thus he doubles the computation of M . Arsenieff * . ' Similar rectifications of previous estimates occur at pages 42 , 46 , and 47 . Again in regard to population . We instance the mode in which he obtains his grand total , to show the spirit in which he sets to work . According to the last census , the population of . European Russia in J 851 was 55 , 033 , 000 . From this figure he desires to pass to the population at the end of 1852 . After showing in a general way that in twenty-six governments the rate of increase of population fell ( in most , considerably ) short of one per cent , per annum , while in ten others it exceeded that proportion , he adopts the rate of one per cent , for the ordinary annual increase of population throughout European Russia . He is thus enabled to add half a million to the census of 1851 , which , with the populations of Finland and Poland similarly augmented , thus amounts to 61 , 969 , 000 . lie then sets down the population of Russia in Asia at 4 , 638 , 000 . " This cipher , " he says , " added to the total population of European Russia , gives 66 , 931 , 000 inhabitants for the whole empire ; or , if we add the American possessions , with a population of about 60 , 000 , together with the army and navy , we may carry the total cipher of the population of the empire to 68 , 000 , 000 . " He proceeds to say that at the same rate of increase the population will amount to 100 , 000 , 000 within thirty-nine years . The facility with which he here operates upon numbers is admirable ; it is only to be equalled by his faith in the results . First , we have an imperfect census , in which he admits that the same persons not unfrequently figure twice or thrice , and which passes the possibility of rectification . Next , we have a guess at the rate of increase of the population . To conclude , we have the army and navy reckoned broadly at 1 , 009 , 000 to bring out a round number in the grand total , while at the same time we have no information whether they were not already included in the census . In dividing the urban from the rural populations he arrives at numerical results independently of any data whatever . We must do him the justice to say that in this , as in other cases , he 1 s far from being studious to conceal tie shaky bases of his conclusions . He tells us that in the large towns the frequency of changes of domicile , &c , occasion mistakes , ami make the same individual figure over and over in the population lists ; that as regards the population of the towns the accounts are generally very imperfect ; and that the population of the burghs is altogether unknown . He effects the division notwithstanding ; by figures he floors all difficulties , and secures their * " irrefragable testimony" in favour of conclusions already determined upon . In estimating the products of the soil , he proceeds with great boldness to reason upon the data in his possession ; not unfrequently he ventures upon his estimates with few or no facts to guide him . We hero quote the gross results of his estimates of Russian produce : — ESTIMATE OF AauiOUI / IUKAX PKOPUCTfl . Silver roubles . Cereals , including straw 1 , 019 , 200 , 000 Potatoes 15 , 000 , 000 Culture of beet-root fdr augur . ,.... 1 , 800 , 000 Product of vineyards ; 7 , 700 , 000 Product of gardens 00 , 000 , 000 Product of meadows 860 , 000 , 000 Flax andhomn 80 , 528 , 000 Cotton 620 , 000
===== . , . , . „ : „ , - .,.:.... . — . Oleaginous grains .......................... 18 , 886 , 000 Tobacco ; ¦ Z i lOOiOOO Tinctorial and medicinal plants .. 2 , 500 , 000 Forest products 185 , 000 , 000 Products of domestic animals 275 , 880 , 000 Poultry 10 , 000 , 00 . 0 Bees ... * ., 8 , 000 , 000 Silk 1 , 500 , 000 Chase 2 , 000 , 000 Fisheries ... 15 , 000 , 000 Total ( = 311 , 221 , 000 / . sterling ) 1 , 965 , 609 , 000 This table includes only a few of the products of Russia in Asia . The corrected annual gross product of the rural economy of Russia , according to our author , gives the grand total of 2 , 044 , 000 , 000 of roubles , or 332 $ tnillion pounds sterling . We are unfortunately unable to compare this result with those obtained by other statists ; but we think we can show what value is to be attached to it by examples in the case of France . Tegoborski himself admits that French statists enjoy many advantages over himself in making estimates of agricultural produce . Now in France Count Chaptal estimated the gross returns from agriculture in 1819 at 4 , 078 , 708 , 000 francs . In 1836 . they amounted , according to M . Dutens , to 6 , 72 S , 760 , 000 francs . M . Roycr , in the same year , estimated them at 7 , 543 , 023 , 000 francs ; while , according to the corrected official statistics prepared in 1840 , they amounted to 5 , 837 , 529 , 430 francs . Last year M . Lavergne , availing himself of the most recent information , set them down at 3 , 400 , 000 , 000 francs . Here we see that , in the absence of positive information , the errors committed by some of the statists actually doubled the gross returns . To come nearer home , one of the results of the report of the Scottish Agricultural Statistics Society was to show the utter absurdity of such arguments as to make up the hook before us . Mr . M'CuUoch had achieved a great reputation for his " admirable" statistics , till it was found that l > y such arguments as those of Tegoborski he had made an error of nearly 4 , 000 , 000 quarters in his estimate of Scotch produce . This statist actually doubled the produce from the small area cultivated in Scotland—an area far exceeded by that of most Russian provinces ! We are not aware that Tegoborski is personally above falling into errors as great as those of Mr . M'CuUoch and the French statists , and we know that his data are more deficient and less trustworthy than those to which they had access . But when the errors in respect to a single province conic to * be multiplied fifty-folil , as in the gross returns above quoted , no reliance can be placed on them . We will give one example of our author's mode of making estimates . At page 150 he sets down the land occupied in the culture of beet-root at over forty-five thousand dessiatines , or say one hundred and thirty-five thousand acres . He here proves by probable reasoning that this estimate must be considerably beneath the mark ; but at page 4 U 3 , having received the report of commission , he confesses to an error in excess in this estimate of about 45 , 000 acres , or one-third of the amount . Ho doubt the candour of this confession is to be much admired , but as much is the obtuseness which refuses to benefit by the lesson involved in the discovery of such a mistake to be censured . When we discover such an error as this in his estimate of beet-root , what are we to say of the cereal harvest , the potato crop , the vine , meadows , flnx , hemp , tobacco , and other products , the estimates of which appear to be in no better case P We hold " guesses at truth" in works affecting to be statistical to be worse than valueless . While they mislead , they present the appearance of work doue , and delay the collection of reliable information . As M . Tegoborski occupies a large portion of his work with comparisons of the produce , and the money values of the produce , of Russia and other European countries , we have to remark that he uniformly omits to accommodate the money values iu the different countries to each other , by applying the money equation . Inconsequence , the tables of comparison whicli he rives are calculated only to mislead ; and it is impossible to obtain from them , without performing a troublesome arithmetical sum in each case , any idea of the relative resources of the countries compared . We would ; ilao observe , tliat in comparing the resources of different countries as deductible from produce , a comparison of produce alone is insufficient . The subjects of comparison should be the fraction formed in each case by nutting the produce as numerator and the population as denominator . I $ ut had Tegoborski followed this rule he would have " turned the tables" against his own country . We have now given our opinion of M . Tegoborski ' s statistics . His book contains much interesting matter apart from his figures . Though the absolute population of Russia is so great , the empire is relatively one of the mostly thinly peopled countries in the world . Whereas in _ England tlicrc arc nearly 5000 inhabitants to a geographical square mile , in Russia there are only U 72 . The population is , besides , very unequally distributed , varying in different governments from 21 to 2591 inhabitants to the square mile . This inequality contributes with other causes to make the prices in the corn trade variable . Among these other causes , and indep endently of the Russian system of agriculture , arts the inequality of the harvests , the distances between the corn markets , and the difficulties of communication . With us , the variations in the price of corn are never very remarkable . In Itupsin , between 1832 and 1841 , prices varied in some governments from 10 to 25 , and in others from 10 to 111 . The remedy for these variations , to jud ^ c from the thinness of the towns , must bo fur distant . In European Russia there is only one town to I 3 O £ square milos . And besides the disadvantages under which the corn merchants labour from the distribution of the population and towns , the system of culture by serf labour prevents their obtaining more than half the benefits of the soil . Thirl labour is admitted to be less productive than free labour , and tho former is almost the only kind employed in Russia . According to tho hist census , there were 11 , 68 . 1 , 200 mule peaunnta mibjoct to tho Corv < 5 e , and 11 , 687 , 600 not subject to it , of whom only ' 230 , 000 were free peasants . In forty-six governments in which tho total male population is 23 , 450 , 350 , there jirc of serf cultivators 10 , 8 < i V > !) . % giving « proportion of 40 , 318 to tho hundred thousand male inhabitant ? . So that , " on tho irrefragable testimony of figures , " the Russian Empire is in a very bad way . Wo are accordingly glad to learn that tho Gov ernment
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Citation
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Leader (1850-1860), Oct. 13, 1855, page 992, in the Nineteenth-Century Serials Edition (2008; 2018) ncse.ac.uk/periodicals/l/issues/vm2-ncseproduct2110/page/20/
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