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bis wishes ; that the bookseller may refuse to part with his volumes ; and that in the last hypothetical case aclduced , mankind may no longer feel incensed at those actions which formerly roused their indignation . " The reply to this objection is not difficult . In all these cases there is no want of faith in the uniformity of causation : our uncertainty by no means relates to the principle itself , out to the point whether all the same causes , and no other , are in operation : and if the event at any time turn out contrary to our expectations , we feel well assured of the presence of some extraordinary cause—an assurance evidently proceeding on the assumption , that if the causes had been the same , the effects must also have been similar .
Thus , if my correspondent is unable to read my letter , if he no longer connects any meaning with the written words , I am convinced that some extraordinary calamity has befallen him . If the bookseller refuse to sell me his volumes , I feel no hesitation in ascribing his conduct to some particular motive not usually at work in his mind : all proving , not that there is a want of uniformity in the sequence of causes and effects , but that there is a different assemblage of causes ; that some essential circumstance has been left out , or some unusual one crept into the accustomed combination . "—P . 220 .
That our certainty and uncertainty , in relation to moral , are of the same nature as in relation to physical events , is clearly shewn by a perspicuous method of comparison . Physical events are divided into four classes , in which the issues are anticipated with different degrees of assurance , while the conviction of the connexion of cause and effect remains unshaken ; and voluntary actions are afterwards classified in a similar manner .
1 st . Some events are observed to be so invariably connected with others , that when one takes place , we feel perfectly sure that another will follow ; as , when lead is about to be put into water , we expect it to sink ; when flame is applied to gunpowder , we anticipate an explosion . These consequences will follow if the antecedents be employed ; but whether they will be employed , is yet uncertain .
The second class comprehends events whose causes are m actual operation , and which may therefore be confidently predicted ; as the eclipses of the sun and moon . The third includes those phenomena which , being beyond the reach of human foresight , are to us uncertain ; as the state of the wind and weather ,
and a multitude of others . —Analogous in point of uncertainty to these are many events connected with those concerning which we feel perfect assurance * For instance , we predict that an elastic ball thrown against a hard floor will rebound ; but the precise curve it will describe , and in what part of the floor its motion will cease , must be ascertained by experiment .
In the fourth class are included events which may be predicted \ n the gross , but not in the detail ; such as the regular return of the seasons . The corresponding classes of voluntary actions are shewn to afford corresponding degrees of assurance in our anticipations . We calculate , that if a man be hungry , he will eat ; if in danger of fire , that he will attempt to escape , &c . If it be objected that a hungry man may refuse to eat , it is replied , that some motive to abstinence then interferes . In like manner ,
lead may not sink in water ( a lamp of cork may buoy it up ); but in both cases , the result is influenced by an adventitious circumstance . Again ; some voluntary actions may be confidently predicted , their antecedents being in actual operation ; as , that speeches will be made in the present session of parliament ; that the tradesmen in the next town will shut their shops on Sunday , and so on . The third class is the most numerous , comprehending the majority of the actions of mankind . Like the wind and weather , meteors
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Essays on the Pursuit of TVutK ^ , 63 $
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vol . in . 2 x
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Citation
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Monthly Repository (1806-1838) and Unitarian Chronicle (1832-1833), Sept. 2, 1829, page 633, in the Nineteenth-Century Serials Edition (2008; 2018) ncse.ac.uk/periodicals/mruc/issues/vm2-ncseproduct2576/page/33/
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